3 minute read
We head to headquarters for Winter racing.
Keen to bet in three races this week at Flemington with Jimmy The Bear backing up from a last start win at Caulfield.
His first up run behind Stradbroke favourite War Machine was very good and he improved four pounds to run 114 on the Racing & Sports in a strong win.
That rating has him clearly on top here and well clear of equal favourite Oh Too Good. She's a handy mare and I was keen on her at Sandown however I thought she was plain disappointing late.
She's now run RAS ratings between 100-105 at her past seven starts - commendable consistency but seemingly now lacking that killer punch to go to a new level, which she'll need to.
Jimmy is drawn wide with the possible worry of them going back, but surely on the quick turnaround he's ridden to his strengths.
He's raced on a quick turnaround twice and performed right up to scratch. He dipped from 110 to 108 when tackling 2000m for the first time in 2023 and then held his rating of 112 on an eight day turnaround last year.
Backing Jimmy to hold his rating from last start and if he does, he should be winning.
The second bet I'm keen to have is Shockletz in Race 8. I was very keen on her at Sandown and she just got shuffled back early before making good ground to (devastatingly) just miss the placings.
She'll relish the step to 2000m and that last start rating already has her as one of the hardest to beat. She should have far more improvement than the rest and looks a huge winning chance.
The each-way play comes up in Race 7 where Flemington 2000m specialist Shaiyhar boasts a swag of ratings over this circuit that go close in this.
Take out the run when outclassed in the Australian Cup, he's run ratings of 113, 106, 109 and 101 (winning three of those) over the Flemington 2000m.
Liberami is the favourite and progressing nicely but has been suited with light weights off slow tempos. Even down in the weights again, I can't get him anywhere near the price he is.
The Melbourne Mail
Bet of the day: Race 5 #3 Jimmy The Bear at $2.90
Also backing: Race 8 #7 Shockletz at $4.20
Each-way play: Race 7 #8 Shaiyhar at $9/3
