About this time each Spring trainers decide whether to go handicapping or to WFA races and the Underwood is decider.

Glory in the staying Cups at Caulfield and Flemington can be shown up here? Examining recent Underwoods might give us an idea of a Spring entrant's likely passage.

• 2005 – PERLIN 6g (Carnegie x My Midnight Madam) ($7)

Jockey: Danny Nikolic, Trainer: Graeme Rogerson

Barrier: 12, Weight: 58.0kg

Gross Time: 1:52.69, 600m Sectional: 37.23

Margin: 1.5L, Track: Heavy, Starters: 15

2nd: Our Smoking Joe (58.0kg), 3rd: She's Justa Tad (54.5kg)

In the Winter sunshine, Perlin joined the Group One club with an authoritative performance in the Doomben Cup. Having that grounding behind him, it came as no surprise that the son of Carnegie would be competitive early in the Spring with residual fitness and on a wet track – something the breed savour. Lead up Liston and Craiglee runs were overshadowed by a race where he took up a much more forward position compared to those events over unsuitable distances. This edition of the Underwood was underwhelming as most of the field had disappointing Spring carnivals. Perlin himself would start clear favourite in the Yalumba and Moonee Valley Cup but he was a light of other days. He would have two more starts before retirement.

• 2006 – EL SEGUNDO 5g (Pins x Palos Verdes) ($3 fav)

Jockey: Darren Gauci, Trainer: Colin Little

Barrier: 7, Weight: 58.0kg

Gross Time: 1:49.56, 600m Sectional: 34.65

Margin: 2.5L, Track: Good, Starters: 15

2nd: Polar Bear (58.0kg), 3rd: Molotov (58.0kg)

Colin Little had generally been conservative with his horses and El Segundo was no exception. Always putting the horse first, he would prefer not to go to the well too often. The previous Spring, El Segundo went quickly through his grades, so quickly that he bolted the Yalumba Stks in leaving his trainer little option but to run in the Caulfield Cup where he didn't quite handle the pressure. Be it maturity or just the necessary time to get over a few niggling injuries, he came back a must better horse. A slashing run in the Aurie Star was accompanied by the Memsie win. At 1800 he was dynamic and loved the pace being set by Casual Pass who led easily from Roman Arch. Serenade Rose and Our Smoking Joe had good tags but when the pace slowed at the 1000m, the concertina effect didn't help those held up behind the leaders. Darren Gauci used the versatility of El Segundo by getting him rolling 600 out and unleashed his turn of foot, sprinting brilliantly past a field of stayers. The Cox Plate would elude him by a pimple.

• 2007 – RUBISCENT 5g (Rubiton x Skyescent) ($41)

Jockey: Danny Nikolic, Trainer: Mick Price

Barrier: 13, Weight: 59.0kg

Gross Time: 1:49.08, 600m Sectional: 35.93

Margin: 1.3L, Track: Good, Starters: 13

2nd: Miss Finland (55.5kg), 3rd: Marasco (59.0kg)

Nothing like the win of an absolute bolter to shake up the plans of the racing fraternity. Rubiscent was a good, honest handicapper – well that's at least the view of his trainer Mick Price as he had been sending him around in mile races until he ran 7th, 3 lengths in a Listed race behind Ice Chariot. That can hardly be construed as an ultimate formline for a G1 WFA test. Betting suggested a two horse war with Williams on Miss Finland (10-9f) and Beadman on Marasco (13-8) investigating each others moves and trying to counter them. Dane Empire worked forward and roared away at the half way mark allowing Nikolic to get the slipstream. While Miss Finland got caught three wide, Rubiscent covered the leaders on the turn then the undeniable Nikolic-Underwood juggernaut offered up another successful amalgamation. The favourites worked home but it was far too late while Eskimo Queen was very unlucky being held up at a crucial stage.

• 2008 – WEEKEND HUSSLER 4g (Hussonet x Weekend Beauty) ($1.53 fav)

Jockey: Brad Rawiller, Trainer: Ross McDonald

Barrier: 3, Weight: 58.0kg

Gross Time: 1:49.86, 600m Sectional: 36.97

Margin: 0.8L, Track: Dead, Starters: 13

2nd: Pompeii Ruler (59.0kg), 3rd: Littorio (58.0kg)

This was his finest moment of the Spring. Sure he had won the Memsie and Makybe Diva but this was his acid test as it was first crack beyond the mile. His dam side said he should get the trip. In the race Maldivian led but he had Weekend Hussler outside Light Fantastic next and Pompeii Ruler behind them. The grey horse was gone on the turn showing his form was overrated. Before the turn Michael Rodd tried to get away but the Hussler and Ruler challenged then strode past at the furlong. Rawiller coaxed the good horse to hold them off and he made it G1 Number seven. Littorio was the eye catcher while Viewed worked home well? You wouldn't think it but that is the last time Weekend Hussler has won since then.

• 2009 – HEART OF DREAMS 4g (Show A Heart x Academy Of Dreams) ($10)

Jockey: Craig Newitt, Trainer: Mick Price

Barrier: 4, Weight: 58.0kg

Gross Time: 1:49.54, 600m Sectional: 36.49

Margin: 0.4L, Track: Dead, Starters: 16

2nd: Whobegotyou (58.0kg), 3rd: Predatory Pricer (58.0kg)

Heart of Dreams only had a light Autumn but it was definitely fruitful. On a emotional day, Craig Newitt rode him a treat to win the Australian Guineas and he then came north to defeat a top line up in the Phar Lap at Rosehill. Ironically the placings would be exactly the same in this Underwood. This was one of the strongest fields of the Spring and Typhoon Tracy ran them along. So much so that Maldivian was kept wide all the way. Newitt produced HOD at the right time, coming up the middle of Caulfield with Whobe. The new father celebrated a win that would elevate the horse to near favouritism for the Cox Plate.

RACE PROFILE

o Danny Nikolic has won four Underwoods since 1997.

o Three years in a row the Underwood winner did the double winning the Caulfield Cup (Northerly, Mummify, Elvstroem). Since then that Cup has been a handicapper's race.

o Race has been dominated by horses racing on the speed. Furthest back in the run in recent times has been El Segundo and he just swamped them.

o No clear pattern with the barriers but the race often contains a few distance handicappers who can't take up a forward position anyway.

o Besides the Hussler, favourites haven't gone on with the job but conversely, apart from Rubiscent, blow out results don't happen too often either.

o Last mare to win was Tristarc in 1985.

o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner – 4yo (4 times)

o Last 10 Years Winningest Barrier Range <1-4> - 4 times

o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner – $8.70

o Breakdown of winners – 9 geldings + 1 entire

o Last 10 Years Memsie Stks / Underwood Stks double – Weekend Hussler ('08), El Segundo ('06)

o Last 10 Years (Craiglee) Makybe Diva Stks / Underwood Stks double – Weekend Hussler ('08), Northerly ('02)

o Last 10 Years Doomben Cup / Underwood Stks double – Perlin ('05)

o Last 10 Years (Feehan) Dato Tan Chin Nam Stks / Underwood Stks double – Northerly ('01)

o Last 10 Years SA Derby / Underwood Stks double – Mummify ('03)

o Last 10 Years Australian Guineas / Underwood Stks double – Heart of Dreams ('09)

SUMMARY & SELECTIONS

There don't look too many chances in this Underwood Stakes. In fact you'd say one and possibly two.

Zavite may race more forward now he is getting toward more his sort of trip with So You Think out of danger nearby and Metal Bender with Heart of Dreams stalking.

Unless he encounters problems or for some reason the Sydney form is stronger, it is hard to see So You Think not winning.

All the form around him in the Memsie has been franked, he should be fitter, lighter, meaner and obviously handled Caulfield fine. He's also won over the distance and trialled nicely last week.

Metal Bender has to be the danger. Probably the only other true WFA horse in the race and has very good formlines for this in behind Theseo.

He will be third up and hence that little bit fitter again.

Not that a blow out is likely but Dariana may improve sharply enough to fill a hole. She needs more than this and is obviously being trained for further. But coming off the Brisbane winter it won't take her too long to get the muscles flowing again.

Selection: (10) SO YOU THINK

Hardest to Beat: (4) METAL BENDER

Best Roughie: (12) DARIANA