3 minute read

Analysis and ratings from a big Stradbroke Handicap day at Eagle Farm.

Listed Wayne Wilson – Pier

Worth touching on this race won by Pier because there are certain similarities between him and 2023 winner Antino, who both ran to a Racing & Sports rating of 116 after missing a start in the Stradbroke.

Pier had been very good behind Stradbroke winner War Machine (more on him shortly) first up and has gone to a new peak on Saturday in a dominant 2.9 length win.

Getting to a mile in Australia really suited Pier who is a Group 1 winner over the trip in New Zealand, and this rating, backed up by a strong time, opens up plenty of options in the Australian Spring.

Antino won this race in 2023 in very similar fashion, perhaps slightly stronger on the clock in a near-identical (3 length) margin win, also starting very similar prices ($2.6 vs $2.7)

Of course, Antino has gone right on with it, especially in the carnival just gone, and while it's unlikely Pier will end up rated 126 two years later, there are strong race that are worth targeting.

Antino targeted the Toorak Handicap and Crystal Mile, nosed by Attrition in the former and horrendously unlucky in the latter (with the R&S office largely keen on both occasions…)

A similar path, and potentially even a race over further, could be an option for Pier.

Group 1 JJ Atkins – Cool Archie

Perhaps outside Antino, two-year-old Cool Archie has been the story of the Queensland carnival and the locally trained colt landed the big prize, extending his winning streak to five.

He became the fifth horse to complete the Sires/Atkins double and the third horse to win the Spirit Of Boom Classic, Sires and Atkins in a row.

To win five in a row, from 1000m-1600m, on incredibly heavy to good ground is a fine achievement and one that (I think) deserves to be awarded Australian two-year-old of the year.

That may be unlikely given he didn't win in Sydney but the feat is one to be commended, although the rating is lacking against some of the top recent JJ Atkins winners.

Rothfire at 117 is the best Atkins winner this century, noting the race was run over 1400m that year, while Broadsiding ran to 116 last year.

In recent years, the JJ Atkins has been a good guide to at least the early three-year-old Spring, again highlighting how beneficial this Queensland experience and preparation is.

Broadsiding would win the Golden Rose in the Spring, adding the Rosehill Guineas in the Autumn.

Converge, rated 115 in the JJ Atkins, would beat Anamoe in the Randwick Guineas, while The Autumn Sun, who went 113 in the Atkins, won another four Group Ones in his three-year-old season.

For comparison, Champagne Stakes winner Nepotism ran to 114 on the RAS scale at just his third start and looks the Caulfield Guineas #1 seed.

Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap – War Machine

One of the more exciting horses in the country, War Machine justified favouritism in the Stradbroke with a strong win, running to a RAS rating of 121.

He'd been given a slightly conservative mark of 118 in his BRC Sprint win prior which has now been adjusted and bumped up to 121 as well, with Saturday's win confirming what he'd hinted at prior.

A RAS rating of 121 holds up pretty well against Stradbroke winners. In the 25 editions since the turn of the century, the median rating is exactly 121, while the mean is just under 120, dragged down slightly by some lower recent winners.

Santa Ana Lane & Srikandi top the list at 124 on the RAS scale, while recent winners include Think About It (122), Alligator Blood (121), Stefi Magnetica (120), Trekking (119), Tofane (119) and Tyzone (113).

It'll be interesting to see what sort of Spring campaign is mapped out for War Machine, because he really seems to have found that sweet spot over the seven-furlong sort of trip, and stretching to a mile may well be a bridge too far.

Perhaps with some more furnishing he could see out a mile which would open up more options, but I'd be a touch wary of him trying to turn into a 1200m sprinter at the same time.

Personally, I'd be targeting the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes where he'd still get in with a winnable weight and then look at the CF Orr Stakes which is at the back end of the Spring.

The Everest carrot will no doubt be dangled and all three could certainly be done, although the Hayes boys might be put off by David and Ka Ying Rising.