3 minute read

The Oaks & Stradbroke got key pointers while Antino confirmed his credentials.

Antino – Doomben Cup

Have to start with Antino who was awesome winning the Doomben Cup and confirming where he sits amongst our weight-for-age ranks.

I don't think anyone can argue he's now the second-best horse in the country, and there was probably already a good case to be made before Saturday.

He's run a new peak Racing & Sports rating of 126 on Saturday, a peak only bettered by Via Sistina this season.

Of the top 15 performances this season, both Via Sistina and Antino have four apiece, with Antino also running a RAS rating of 124 in the Hollindale, Champions Mile, and Toorak Handicap.

Via Sistina on the other hand, has ratings of 132 (Cox Plate), 127 (QEII), 126 (Champions Stakes) and 124 (Turnbull).

Clearly Via still has the edge, but with the twittesphere quick to make decisions one way or the other, we've put head handicapper Adam Blencowe's famous Monte-Carlo machine to work, fresh off the Monaco Grand Prix no less.

Using all performances this season, of which they've both run nine times, and taking performances head-to-head at random over 10,000 simulations, Via Sistina wins a match-race 65.2% of the time, leaving Antino with 34.8%.

If they were to have a match race, that converts to Via Sistina starting $1.53 vs Antino $2.87.

To provide a bit of context around this, our disinvolto data degenerate had this to say:

"Distilling all the information contained in a race result down to a single number naturally results in some information loss. Handicappers, analysts, data degens, see the good in their work but can forget what they don't know, placing too much emphasis on a single number - so often we see a list of horses ranked by peak performance that even a passing fan can quickly see straight through."

"Punters (good ones) know that there is more to the picture and by gazing wider, as this simulation of an array of ratings does, we capture, not a complete image, but a more complete one."

What's great is that both have also run their peak ratings, and supporting ratings, in truly run affairs.

Saturday's Doomben Cup rating was influenced by the time figure which is excellent, and Antino has clearly relished the test again.

While I'd love to see him go over a mile and a half in the Caulfield Cup, the Cox Plate is the obvious grand final, and if all goes to plan, we'll get to see the two best horses in the country clash.

Philia – The Roses

A key lead up to the Queensland Oaks, local filly Philia was well backed and too strong, posting a rating of 106 on the RAS scale.

That's up from 104 the start prior and it sees her your new Queensland Oaks favourite.

A rating of 106 is solid for a Roses, only bettered by Scarlet Oak (107), Bohemian Lily (109) and Scarlett Lady (109).

I'd have a genuine query on her running out a strong 2200m given the pace scenario here was suitable, but she's tough and does things the right way, and may not have to run a 'strong' 2200m anyway.

Jenni's Meadow was very good from the back and has to be a live chance, although I'd love to see the horse that beat her at Caulfield prior, Mary Eliza, run in the Oaks. Churchill's Choice is also a strong chance up in trip.

War Machine – BRC Sprint

War Machine put himself at the top of Stradbroke betting with a decisive win in the BRC Sprint and has run a strong rating in the process.

He's always promised plenty of ability but has really put the foot down this time in, running 114 at Caulfield and improving again here to run 118, which is only bettered by one BRC Sprint winner this century.

That horse was Zariz for Gerald Ryan in 2001 who ran to 122, struggling in the Stradbroke.

Beaded ran to 116 in 2010, starting $17 in a Stradbroke and finishing 4th, beaten 0.4 lengths.

Last year's BRC Sprint winner Here To Shock also went 116 at Doomben but struggled badly in the Stradbroke.

Interestingly, there is only one horse to do the BRC/Straddy double in the same year with River Lad going 113-118 in 2014.

Stradbroke winners range from 124 (Santa Ana Lane & Srikandi) to 113 (Tyzone) on the RAS scale, so War Machine rated 118 and with a very promising profile is clearly a big chance.

There's every chance War Machine brings in the highest last-start rating to the Stradbroke, especially given the Doomben 10,000 was won in a rating of 116 and the Kingsford Smith won't be much stronger.

If that's the case, and he's getting weight off horses like Joliestar or Kimochi, he'll be very hard to go past.