3 minute read
Brett Davis provides exclusive Preview of Happy Valley races.
Rail - C+3 Course
Race 1
#5 EVER SMART ran an excellent race at Sha Tin over the 1200m last start and if he can brings that effort back to Happy Valley tonight he wins.Harry Bentley remains aboard after committing himself earlier in the year and the form surrounding there recent partnerships is strong. There's no doubt he's been costly on the win line for punters from his total of 14 career starts, but tonight appears the night to be jumping back aboard.
#12 WIND SPEEDER saved his career at Sha Tin recently with a long overdue win by defeating SKY PROPHET and company.Now his rating is up over 25 points it's highly likely he'll continue racing again next season. With his natural reliable pace and current enthusiasm he should be settling close to the speed, and if he thereafter gets himself into a fluent rhythm he'll be right in the fight to the line.
#3 WINNING HEART did it the hard way after drawing the outside gate over this course and trip last start but was still good enough to secure the win.It'll almost be a case of deja vu for he and Alexis Badel regarding race set up, however, the varying opponents and 5lbs increase in weight do slightly change. The chances of making it back-to-back are therefore reduced but he's racing confidently and must be respected.
#7 SPEEDIE SMARTIE couldn't get himself anywhere near the running rail at Sha Tin last start and as a result was forced to covered extra ground.There's a chance that'll happen again after drawing awkwardly in barrier 8, amazingly for the fourth time in succession, but the change of jockey back to Brenton Avdulla should be positively acknowledged.
#6 JOYFUL LIFE is still yet to win a race so he's hard to tip confidently for the prize.Nevertheless, he's gifted with plenty of natural gate speed and suited by the low barrier draw. The 7lb claim being utilised by apprentice Ellis Wong is also a major plus, and the pair galloped strongly together during Monday mornings track work session.
Selections : 5,12,3,7,6
R2 - 6,12,4,7,3
R3 - 8,10,5,9,7
Race 4
#7 COUNTRY DANCER is becoming untrustworthy at the start but he can win this open event with a touch of luck. He won two races in class 5 earlier this season and in the process displayed a strong and potent final burst. He continues to learn with racing, and is drawn perfectly in gate 6, but the key shall be whether he can hold a position during the first half, if he does, then he possess the turn of foot to grab the win.
#5 THUNDER PRINCE has the experience of 3 runs at Happy Valley now under his belt with Hugh Bowman the man in the saddle for all. The rise in distance to 1200m looks ideal, along with the low and advantageous draw, and its expected he'll position close and handy to the lead. He remains a world wide maiden to this point, but be mindful he was a G2 runner up in Brisbane at his second career start.
#6 ISLAND BUDDY continues to gain physical strength with racing and is just about ready to win. It's debatable, as to whether he needs further relief in the handicap before the win comes, but his natural gate speed should entitle him to every chance. A look around this circuit last start should increase his prospects so he must be included in all multiple calculations.
#1 O'LINER gets the drop in grade to class 4 for the first time and with his reliable speed from gate 4 he can lead. He knows his way round this course and trip after winning here in class 3 off a rating of 66 last season. On that occasion, he lead throughout from the inside gate and was eased down final stages to score. He'll also be better for the run first up, after surgery to both front fetlocks saw him spend 5 months away from the track.
#3 SWEET BRIAR holds a fifty percent win strike rate in this class so if you follow the law of averages then he should win. However, he's tricky to assess after 4 mediocre runs leading in but draws well with Lyle Hewitson aboard. There was a late flicker of money for him the last time he went around and I'm tipping that'll been the case again tonight.
Selections : 7,5,6,1,3
R5 - 1,8,5,6,4
R6 - 10,4,2,5,1
R7 - 5,2,1,6,4
R8 - 3,8,4,5,1
R9 - 3,5,1,2,10
