Australians don't need much more than those three famous words (The Melbourne Cup) to get excited.
Considered the most watched 200 seconds in Australia each year, this two mile handicap horse race means much more than an equine event. It's a day of community, a public holiday in Melbourne and a celebration nationwide. In 1895, while on a lecture tour, Mark Twain was quoted as saying "Nowhere in the world have I encountered a festival of people that has such a magnificent appeal to the whole nation. The Cup astonishes me." Let's check out last five editions of our First Tuesday in November.
• 2006 – DELTA BLUES 6g (Dance in the Dark x Dixie Splash) (16-1)
Jockey: Yasunari Iwata, Trainer: Katsuhiko SumiiBarrier: 10, Weight: 56.0kg
Gross Time: 3:21.42, 600m Sectional: 35.82Margin: 0.1L, Track: Good, Starters: 23
2nd: Pop Rock (D Oliver-53.0kg), 3rd: Maybe Better (C Munce-50.0kg)Timeform Rating: 125
Crowd: 106,691
Photo by Bronwen Healy
• 2007 – EFFICIENT 4g (Zabeel x Refused The Dance) (16-1)
Jockey: Michael Rodd, Trainer: Graeme RogersonBarrier: 9, Weight: 54.5kg
Gross Time: 3:23.34, 600m Sectional: 35.58Margin: 0.5L, Track: Dead, Starters: 21
2nd: Purple Moon (D Oliver-53.5kg), 3rd: Mahler (S Baster-50.5kg)Timeform Rating: 123
Crowd: 102,411
Photo by Bronwen Healy
• 2008 – VIEWED 5h (Scenic x Lovers Knot) (40-1)
Jockey: Blake Shinn, Trainer: Bart CummingsBarrier: 8, Weight: 53.0kg
Gross Time: 3:20.40, 600m Sectional: 34.93Margin: 0.1L, Track: Good, Starters: 22
2nd: Bauer (C Brown-52.0kg), 3rd: C'est La Guerre (B Prebble-54.0kg)Timeform Rating: 120
Crowd: 107,280
Photo by Bronwen Healy
• 2009 – SHOCKING 4h (Street Cry x Maria Di Castiglia) (9-1)
Jockey: Corey Brown, Trainer: Mark KavanaghBarrier: 21, Weight: 51.0kg
Gross Time: 3:23.87, 600m Sectional: 36.60Margin: 0.8L, Track: Dead, Starters: 23
2nd: Crime Scene (K McEvoy-53.0kg), 3rd: Mourilyan (G Schofield-54.5kg)Timeform Rating: 119
Crowd: 102,161
Photo by Bronwen Healy
• 2010 – AMERICAIN 5h (Dynaformer x America) (12-1)
Jockey: Gerald Mosse, Trainer: Alain De Royer DupreBarrier: 11, Weight: 54.5kg
Gross Time: 3:26.87, 600m Sectional: 36.70Margin: 3L, Track: Slow, Starters: 23
2nd: Maluckyday (L Nolen-51.0kg), 3rd: So You Think (S Arnold-56.0kg)Timeform Rating: 126
Crowd: 110,223
Photo by Racing and Sports
RACE PROFILE
o There have been five multiple winners – Archer (1861+62), Peter Pan (1932+34), Rain Lover (1968+69), Think Big (1974-75) & Makybe Diva (2003+04+05).
o Eleven horses have done the Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup double – Poseidon (1906), The Trump (1937), Rivette (1939), Rising Fast (1954), Even Stevens (1962), Galilee (1966), Gurner's Lane (1982), Let's Elope (1991), Doriemus (1995), Might and Power (1997) & Ethereal (2001).o Of the last 18 winners, 11 have won their last start and 7 were defeated of which 3 were placed. Only Viewed, Efficient, Makybe Diva '03 and Jezabeel when knocked down at Caulfield were unplaced.
o Highest weight to win – Carbine 65.5kg in 1890.o Shortest price to win – Phar Lap 11-8 on – 1930.
o Barriers have been of little importance with the 900m run to the first turn. Since 1988 Kingston Rule drew 1, Might and Power 2, Saintly 3, Media Puzzle 3 as well as Empire Rose 20, Doriemus 21, Rogan Josh 21, Brew 23.o Leading Trainers - Bart Cummings (12), Etienne de Mestre (5), Lee Freedman (5).
o Leading Jockeys – Bobbie Lewis (4), Harry White (4).o Winners by Age – 3yo x 23, 4yo x 43, 5yo x 43, 6yo x 29, 7yo x 10, 8yo+ x 2.
o By comparison with the Caulfield Cup, only seven 4yos have won at Flemington in the last 27 years.o First Female Trainer to win – Sheila Laxon – Ethereal 2001
o First Million Dollar race – What a Nuisance 1985.o While horses like Might and Power made all the running and Delta Blues was on pace, most recent winners have been well and truly in the second half of the field.
o Mare victories are a conundrum. They have won 5 of the last 11 and 7 of the last 21 Cups but that isn't the norm. Before Empire Rose in 1988 you had to go back to Light Fingers in 1965.o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner – 6yo (4 times)
o Last 10 Winners Average Weight of winner – 54.0kgo Last 10 Years Winningest Barrier Range <9-12> - 4 times
o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner – 12-1o Breakdown of winners – 2 geldings, 4 mares & 4 entires
o Last 10 Years Turnbull Stks / Melbourne Cup double – Makybe Diva ('05)o Last 10 Years Geelong Cup / Melbourne Cup double – Americain ('10), Media Puzzle ('02)
o Last 10 Years Caulfield Cup / Melbourne Cup double – Ethereal ('01)o Last 10 Years Sydney Cup / Melbourne Cup double – Makybe Diva ('04)
o Last 10 Years Cox Plate / Melbourne Cup double – Makybe Diva ('05)o Last 10 Years Lexus / Melbourne Cup double – Shocking ('09)
o Last 10 Years BMW Stks / Melbourne Cup double – Makybe Diva ('05)o Last 10 Years Brisbane Cup / Melbourne Cup double – Viewed ('08)
o Last 10 Years Qld Oaks / Melbourne Cup double – Ethereal ('01)SUMMARY & SELECTIONS
This looms as one of the best betting Cups in a long time. Not so much because many punters know the form but exactly the opposite given all the international interest.
Photo by Racing and Sports
It is the tieing in of the form through all the European races and how they will react to racing in a big 24 horse field. The track surely will be at best about a Dead 4 which will suit most of them.
It will be a charge early because the overseas horses love pace on. They'd prefer it a staying test. But what that means is that backmarkers get their chance and many Cup winners come from a margin away as Americain did in 2010.
Think you have to trust the Geelong Cup form yet again. Dunaden has exactly the same formlines as Americain last year.
He carried the same weight there and gets the same weight including the penalty at Flemington.
Being a disciple of Alain de Royer-Dupre, Mikel Delzangles looks to have followed exactly the same process to the letter.
He has run in similar lead ups including the Kergorlay and while not as impressive in that race, his Geelong Cup win was as good.
The jockey switch, or potential thereof, is some issue not that Lemaire is in anyway a poor jockey. But Craig Williams had had the run on him and knew what was happening.
Ironically we look to a former Epsom Derby runner up in At First Sight for the main danger. Lloyd Williams team have been firing most of the Spring and this bloke had a break due to an problem.
Given the time off following the Naturalism, he charged home in Bendigo Cup and using the form reference of Tanby through other Spring runners, he will run a great race with the 52.5kg.
Only issue might be he hasn't won since his maiden at Gowran Park.
Godolphin holds a few aces here with both Lost In The Moment and Modun.
The former was desperately unlucky in the Goodwood Cup and has form therefore against the likes of Fox Hunt, Manighar, Red Cadeaux and was not far away in the Ebor which ties in with other contenders.
This stable have gone close to winning this race on several occasions with the second stringer and that is probably how they think here given McEvoy is on Modun.
And of that horse he brings in a good effort on the All Weather at Kempton. That was under the care of Sir Michael Stoute and being bought to win this, he was obviously identified early.
Interestingly he is a half brother to Saptapadi (in this race) and Patkai who was a good stayer just under G1 level.
These mile and a quarter/mile and a half horses are better suited than the marathon stayers.
No knock on Americain at all but he has to carry 58kg and while he is a darn good stayer, is he a champion which is needed to lump that?
Selection: (3) DUNADEN
Hardest to Beat: (17) AT FIRST SIGHTBest Roughie: (15) LOST IN THE MOMENT & (16) MODUN
