A cracking Winter card at Flemington sets the scene for Finals Day.
If Winter Finals Day is the main course, Saturday is an outstanding entrée.
There are a handful of very progressive types here who will no doubt be well fancied in two weeks' time, none more so than two-year-old Observer in the opener.
He turned heads with a dominant win at the midweeks last time out, posting a RAS rating of 100 with the time to match, winning by five lengths.
A son of Ghaiyyath, he looks every bit a Group horse who could well gap these again. That said, black odds were quickly snapped up and while $1.70 now is the right price according to the Melbourne Mail, it doesn't present any real edge and so we press on.
Similarly, the black odds about Splash Back in Race 7 were quickly snapped up off a dominant fresh win at Caulfield, seemingly with plenty more to offer, but the price now reflects that promise (and a bit more) so we look further!
For our best we are again drawn to a Melbourne Mail favourite in a prior Finals Day winner Jimmy The Bear, who goes around in Race 8, a key pointer to the Winter Championship Final.
Instructions last time were horrendously negative when taken right back (on the quick backup nonetheless!), and while he likely wouldn't have beaten Oh Too Good regardless, he sets up much better here and the price is fair.
Last start's rating won't win this but the two prior make him a clear favourite and the draw this time suggests he'll be ridden far more positively against horses he's had the measure of in recent runs.
For the each-way play we roll onto the last, a cracking pointer to the Creswick Stakes on Finals Day with a big field of promising three-year-olds doing battle.
Fieldelo and She's An Artist both bring big Bendigo wins and similar ratings, but the betting there is tight in a field with plenty of talent.
Time Lapse is one that has always hinted at that, the son of In Her Time who certainly knew her way down the Flemington straight.
An average starting price of $2.63 in five runs to date give some indication that the ability is there, and that preparation should have given him the tools to improve with more racing.
Needs to put it all together now but looks one capable of doing so and with prices hovering around the 20-1 mark he looks a worthy gamble.
The Melbourne Mail
Bet of the day: Race 8 #3 Jimmy The Bear at $5.00
Each-way play: Race 9 #17 Time Lapse at $21/5
