3 minute read
We look at some feature international racing & ratings for this week’s Talking Points.
With the Group Ones called off in Australia and saved for what will no doubt be a huge edition of Talking Points next week, we instead look abroad where the French & Japanese Derbies were run over the weekend.
The Prix Du Jockey Club (2100m) has become one of, if not the world's leading Derby in recent years, which may upset a few.
As our head handicapper Adam Blencowe put out during the week, the monte carlo machine favours the French over the past handful of years.
With 10,000 simulations drawn pitting the French, Japanese and English Derby winners against each other, the French comes out on top 56.5% ahead of Japan (22.7%) and Epsom (20.83%).
There have been some top winners of the French Derby in recent years, and the drop back from a traditional mile-and-a-half trip to 2100m (another one for the traditionalists to get up in arms about!) has potentially been a factor.
Since that switch in 2005, the winning standard has been consistently strong. Ace Impact at 129 on the Racing & Sports scale tops the list from Lope De Vega and Vadeni (both 128).
This year's edition was won by Camille Pissarro for Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore and has rated well down the list, with an interesting caveat.
The colt by Wootton Bassett got the gaps up the inside and won in a driving finish, running to 118 on the RAS scale, the second lowest rating in 20 years.
Although the rating isn't strong with the first six finishing within 1.6 lengths, the time is unusually fast, contradicting the typical notion of slow paces = no margins.
What isn't in doubt is that the ground was very fast- better than a good 3, so that lack of resistance in the track has potentially offset the tempo in creating margins, which are essentially just a function of time.
The raw time run is 2:04:40, which the Racing & Sports database shows has only been bettered twice in history.
Treve won the Prix De Diane (French Oaks) at her third start in 2:03:77 and went 124+ for good measure. She'd then win the Group 1 Prix Vermeille and the Arc de Triomphe by five lengths over Japanese superstar Orfevre, running a whopping 133 on the RAS scale.
The other horse to have bettered Camille Pissarro's Chantilly 2100m time is Mishriff who won won the Derby in 2020 with a time of 2:04:01. He'd go on to win a Group 1 Sheema Classic in Dubai and a Group 1 Juddmonte by six lengths, rated 129.
Good company for Camille Pissarro to keep, however if he's run fast time, so have the ones just in behind who were coming off very average looking form.
It'll be interesting to see how this stacks up against the Derby at Epsom this weekend, no doubt with the form clashing in the Arc.
Speaking of the Arc, it's been reported the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) winner Croix Du Nord could also be headed that way, and his Derby win has rated well historically.
The son of Kitasan Black has run to 124 on the RAS scale to notch up his second win at the top level having also taken out the Hopeful Stakes (2000m) at two.
Going back 20 years again conveniently includes the highest rated Tokyo Yushun winner, Deep Impact, who ran to 131 in 2005.
Contrail (128), Orfevre (126) and Duramente (125) sit next in that list while Croix Du Nord sits alongside Do Deuce (subsequent 3x G1 winner), Shahryar and last year's winner Danon Decile, both of whom have won a Sheema Classic in Dubai.
124 is well ahead of Tastiera who won for Damian Lane in 2023 running 119, and he's now rated 124 off a win in the QEII Cup at Sha Tin recently.
The time is very good, a much stronger figure than Danon Decile last year, and Croix Du Nord looks like the next 'star' of Japan, similar to a Do Deuce that can come back and win multiple Group Ones over the next couple of years.
If they do go to the Arc with the aptly named Croix Du Nord, he'll be a solid chance, of course with the major caveat of Japanese horses seemingly struggling year on year on soft ground.
We've seen a few Japanese three-year-old colts run in the Arc, including Do Deuce, who struggled, and Kizuna, who ran to 122 on the RAS scale in his Derby win, then went 123 winning the Prix Neil before finishing fourth in the Arc to the aforementioned Treve and Orfevre in what was the highest rating Arc in the past 20 years.
Croix Du Nord looks every bit as good as a 'good' Derby winner and maybe even a little bit better. Whether that means success at Longchamp remains to be seen..