3 minute read
Brett Davis provides exclusive Preview of Happy Valley races.
Rail - A Course
Race 1
#9 MR ALADDIN hasn't had much joy with barriers of late and nothing changes here after drawing awkwardly in gate 9.With Zac Purton taking over from Hugh Bowman, who's currently suspended, the same tactics are likely to apply with a comfortable and conservative approach adopted from the jump.His efforts in defeat recently have displayed plenty of strength and consistency and the market should follow that line of analysis by grading him the hardest horse to defeat.
#6 SUPER HONG KONG hasn't managed to win a race since July 2023 and on that occasion he was rated 52 points.Now on a rating of 32 points, he's found his way back into a 2200m race at Happy Valley whilst coming up with a low draw.That combination, immediately sets of the flashing red light on the dash board of selection criteria and therefore he must be seriously entertained.Karis Teetan back aboard is also marked positive with the pair boasting an excellent record including two previous success.
#10 GOLDEN FAIRY should lead, or at least be given the run of the race according to the speed map and that'll create a recipe to succeed.Lyle Hewitson burnt plenty of gas attempting to cross from the wide alley at Sha Tin last start and the effort to finish 3rd in the wash up was rock solid.With a narrow defeat registered under these exact circumstances four runs back, it's extremely difficult to leave him out of any multiple calculation.
#11 LEATHER MASTER began improving on the training track during the earlier months of the year and subsequently followed up with his first career win.He remains in class 5 and in between produced another superb 3rd over the same course and trip.The odds are seemingly stacked against him rising up in trip to 2200m whilst drawing wide, but he's currently racing with great enthusiasm and a regular rider is on board.
#2 GO GO GO doesn't win out of turn but he'll be given every opportunity to secure the economical run throughout.He'll have no issues running out 2200m, as his record would suggest, and should strip fitter for the run after enjoying a February Conghua freshen up.Andrea Atzeni has lots of experience behind the wheel which can often count for plenty in the lowest grade.
Selections : 9,6,10,11,2
R2 - 2,6,1,5,9
R3 - 10,3,11,4,2
Race 4
#1 MIDORI FUJI has taken time settling into the groove of Hong Kong lifestyle but his performances over the Happy Valley mile recently have him poised to strike.It's again, a ride Zac Purton picks up from the suspended Hugh Bowman and I'd be fairly confident he'll make it count.The former Australian displayed above average ability when winning his maiden at Nowra by six lengths and now looks to be on the verge of recapturing that form.Furthermore, additional victories could follow once he gains the confidence of a win and I expect him to be more effective at the bottom of the next grade.
#6 WROTE A NEW PAGE is a good looking and sizeable 3yo with his best results no doubt still to come.A trip to Happy Valley before the end of the season is an interesting move considering there's no trial or previous experience at the track.However, I like what I've seen in just the 5 starts and I'm confident he'll end up being better than this grade, but, I'd like to see him parade well during the pre-race.
#9 CAPITAL LEGEND has been a one hit wonder this season after a solo victory and no minor placings from 14 starts.That particular win incidentally came off a rating of 50 points, eight points higher than his mark tonight, and with apprentice Ellis Wong in the saddle.He maps to receive cover, has an excellent fitness bass and should be included as a value chance in this race.
#7 NEBRASKAN remains a maiden after 18 career starts but at the same time has been consistent since blinkers went on.Leading trainer John Size now rolls with the option to step the horse up in trip which coincides with another inside draw.It's obvious, when analysing his body size against weight carried and closing splits that he lacks the final acceleration over the 1200m to score.Therefore, he remains worthy of respect until we are privy of more results.
#4 FLYING WROTE ran an encouraging race two back at his first attempt over the Happy Valley 1650m and on that effort can be given a chance.He wasn't able to back it up unfortunately at his next attempt after never looking comfortable in the run.He's drawn to settle forward of midfield with cover throughout, and from there, a chance of being in the finish.
Selections : 1,6,9,7,4
R5 - 2,8,12,7,9
R6 - 5,4,3,12,11
R7 - 7,2,4,9,5
R8 - 9,8,3,5,2
R9 - 11,1,5,2,4